The feasibility of detecting trees affected by the Pine Wood Nematode using remote sensing

On request of DG SANTE , the Joint Research Centre has conducted between November 2014 and April 2015 a pilot study to establish the feasibility of remote sensing based detection of trees affected by Pine Wood Nematode (PWN) in the 2.2 Mha buffer zone established along the Portuguese and Spanish border. JRC collected multiple types of remote sensing data, from both aircraft and satellites, and a range of sensors and resolutions over a 7000 ha study site in Spain in the winter of 2014-2015. The images were evaluated for their ability to distinguish a) between pine trees that appeared to have a healthy canopy, and those showing decline, and b) between different levels of canopy decline, in terms of defoliation, decolouration and die-off. Detailed analysis of the imagery showed that when properly processed, remote sensing observations, particularly at high spatial and spectral resolution from aircraft, do permit the identification of pine trees showing canopy decline. The ability to detect individual tree crowns, and varying levels of canopy decline, varied with the image resolution, the type of sensor used to acquire the data, and the level of processing of the data. Based on the findings of this study the report spells out a set of technical recommendations for the operational monitoring of tree canopy health over large areas in the context of tree pest oubreaks.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Assessing the potential distribution of insect pests: case studies on large pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L) and horse-chestnut leaf miner (Cameraria ohridella) under present and future climate conditions in European forests†

Forest insect pests represent a serious threat to European forests and their negative effects could be exacerbated by climate change. This paper illustrates how species distribution modelling integrated with host tree species distribution data can be used to assess forest vulnerability to this threat. Two case studies are used: large pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L) and horse-chestnut leaf miner (Cameraria ohridella Deschka & Dimic) both at pan-European level. The proposed approach integrates information from different sources. Occurrence data of insect pests were collected from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), climatic variables for present climate and future scenarios were sourced, respectively, from WorldClim and from the Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), and distributional data of host tree species were obtained from the European Forest Data Centre (EFDAC), within the Forest Information System for Europe (FISE). The potential habitat of the target pests was calculated using the machine learning algorithm of Maxent model. On the one hand, the results highlight the potential of species distribution modelling as a valuable tool for decision makers. On the other hand, they stress how this approach can be limited by poor pest data availability, emphasizing the need to establish a harmonised open European database of geo-referenced insect pest distribution data. Evaluation de la repartition potentielle des insectes nuisibles: etudes de cas sur le grand charancon du pin (Hylobius abietis L.) et sur la mineuse du marronnier (Cameraria ohridella) dans les conditions climatiques actuelles et futures dans les forets europeennes Les insectes nuisibles des forets representent une menace serieuse pour les forets europeennes et leurs effets negatifs pourraient etre aggraves par le changement climatique. Cet article illustre l'utilisation de la modelisation de la repartition des especes, integree aux donnees de repartition des arbres-hotes, pour evaluer la vulnerabilite des forets a cette menace. Deux etudes de cas sont utilisees, toutes deux au niveau paneuropeen, pour le grand charancon du pin (Hylobius abietis L.) et la mineuse du marronnier (Cameraria ohridella Deschka & Dimic). L'approche proposee utilise des informations de differentes sources. Les donnees sur la presence des insectes nuisibles proviennent du service mondial d'information sur la biodiversite ('Global Biodiversity Information Facility', GBIF), les variables climatiques pour le climat actuel et des scenarios futurs ont ete obtenues, respectivement, a partir de WorldClim et du Programme de recherche sur le changement climatique, l'agriculture et la securite alimentaire (CCAFS), et les donnees sur la repartition des arbres-hotes ont ete obtenues aupres du Centre europeen de donnees sur les forets (EFDAC), qui fait partie du systeme d'information forestiere pour l'Europe ('Forest Information System for Europe', FISE). L'habitat potentiel des ravageurs etudies a ete calcule en utilisant l'algorithme d'apprentissage automatique du modele Maxent. D'une part, les resultats indiquent que la modelisation de la repartition des especes peut devenir un outil precieux pour les decideurs. D'autre part, ils indiquent que cette approche peut etre limitee par le manque de donnees sur les organismes nuisibles, renforcant ainsi la necessite de creer une base de donnees europeenne harmonisee et ouverte pour les donnees geo-referencees sur la repartition des insectes nuisibles. Oцeнкa пoтeнциaльнoгo pacпpocтpaнeния вpeдныx нaceкoмыx нa пpимepe бoльшoгo cocнoвoгo дoлгoнocикa (Hylobius abietis L) и лиcтoвoгo минёpa кoнcкoгo кaштaнa (Cameraria ohridella) пpи cyщecтвyющиx и бyдyщиx климaтичecкиx ycлoвияx в eвpoпeйcкиx лeca

Toward Open Science at the European Scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for Integrated Environmental Modelling

[Excerpt] Interfacing science and policy raises challenging issues when large spatial-scale (regional, continental, global) environmental problems need transdisciplinary integration within a context of modelling complexity and multiple sources of uncertainty. This is characteristic of science-based support for environmental policy at European scale, and key aspects have also long been investigated by European Commission transnational research. Approaches (either of computational science or of policy-making) suitable at a given domain-specific scale may not be appropriate for wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) and corresponding policy-making. In WSTMe, the characteristic heterogeneity of available spatial information and complexity of the required data-transformation modelling (D-TM) appeal for a paradigm shift in how computational science supports such peculiarly extensive integration processes. In particular, emerging wide-scale integration requirements of typical currently available domain-specific modelling strategies may include increased robustness and scalability along with enhanced transparency and reproducibility. This challenging shift toward open data and reproducible research (open science) is also strongly suggested by the potential - sometimes neglected - huge impact of cascading effects of errors within the impressively growing interconnection among domain-specific computational models and frameworks. Concise array-based mathematical formulation and implementation (with array programming tools) have proved helpful in supporting and mitigating the complexity of WSTMe when complemented with generalized modularization and terse array-oriented semantic constraints. This defines the paradigm of Semantic Array Programming (SemAP) where semantic transparency also implies free software use (although black-boxes - e.g. legacy code - might easily be semantically interfaced). A new approach for WSTMe has emerged by formalizing unorganized best practices and experience-driven informal patterns. The approach introduces a lightweight (non-intrusive) integration of SemAP and geospatial tools - called Geospatial Semantic Array Programming (GeoSemAP). GeoSemAP exploits the joint semantics provided by SemAP and geospatial tools to split a complex D-TM into logical blocks which are easier to check by means of mathematical array-based and geospatial constraints. Those constraints take the form of precondition, invariant and postcondition semantic checks. This way, even complex WSTMe may be described as the composition of simpler GeoSemAP blocks. GeoSemAP allows intermediate data and information layers to be more easily and formally semantically described so as to increase fault-tolerance, transparency and reproducibility of WSTMe. This might also help to better communicate part of the policy-relevant knowledge, often diffcult to transfer from technical WSTMe to the science-policy interface. [...

Free and Open Source Software underpinning the European Forest Data Centre

Worldwide, governments are growingly focusing on free and open source software (FOSS) as a move toward transparency and the freedom to run, copy, study, change and improve the software. The European Commission (EC) is also supporting the development of FOSS [...]. In addition to the financial savings, FOSS contributes to scientific knowledge freedom in computational science (CS) and is increasingly rewarded in the science-policy interface within the emerging paradigm of open science. Since complex computational science applications may be affected by software uncertainty, FOSS may help to mitigate part of the impact of software errors by CS community- driven open review, correction and evolution of scientific code. The continental scale of EC science-based policy support implies wide networks of scientific collaboration. Thematic information systems also may benefit from this approach within reproducible integrated modelling. This is supported by the EC strategy on FOSS: "for the development of new information systems, where deployment is foreseen by parties outside of the EC infrastructure, [F]OSS will be the preferred choice and in any case used whenever possible". The aim of this contribution is to highlight how a continental scale information system may exploit and integrate FOSS technologies within the transdisciplinary research underpinning such a complex system. A European example is discussed where FOSS innervates both the structure of the information system itself and the inherent transdisciplinary research for modelling the data and information which constitute the system content. [...

Adaptation to Increasing Risks of Forest Fires

This work presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art, large-scale forest fire modeling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modeled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with observed data coming from two different sources (European Forest Fire Information System and Global Fire Emissions Database). Our estimation of the potential increase in burned areas in Europe under ‘‘no adaptation’’ scenario is about 200% by 2090 (compared with 2000-2008). The application of prescribed burnings has the potential to keep that increase below 50%. Improvements in fire suppression might reduce this impact even further, for example, boosting the probability of putting out a fire within a day by 10% would result in about a 30% decrease in annual burned areas. By taking more adaptation options into consideration, such as using agricultural fields as fire breaks, behavioral changes, and long-term options, burned areas can be potentially reduced even further

Selección de especies y efecto del ciervo (Cervus elaphus L.) sobre arbustedos y matorrales de los Montes de Toledo, España central

Agroforestry systems (mosaics of woodlands, rangelands and croplands) managed for red deer rearing and hunting constitute a profitable and increasing form of land usage in Mediterranean Spain since the 1960s. As a consequence, stocking rates have increased dramatically and are now frequently over 50 individuals/km2. That situation has created a new problem of sustainability for that new type of agroforestry systems. This paper analyses the selection of woody species by red deer and the effect of that species on Mediterranean shrublands at the Montes de Toledo range in central Spain. Selection indexes were measured for 33 woody species by comparing percentages of utilization (browsing) with percentages of availability. Phillyrea angustifolia, Arbutus unedo and Quercus faginea showed the highest selection indexes while Thymus mastichina, Daphne gnidium and Pinus pinea showed the lowests ones. Food preferences showed no significant variation with different red deer stocking rates. The effect of red deer stocking rates around 35 individuals/km2 on woodlands and shrublands seems to be over the sustainability level even though sown pastures and croplands are available for red deer populations within the study area.Los sistemas agroforestales (mosaicos de bosques, arbustedos, matorrales, pastos herbáceos y cultivos) dedicados a la caza del ciervo constituyen una forma rentable y creciente de uso territorial en la España mediterránea desde la década de 1960. Como consecuencia, las cargas cinegéticas han aumentado mucho y sobrepasan con frecuencia los 50 individuos/km2. Ello origina un nuevo problema de sustentabilidad para esos nuevos sistemas agroforestales. Este trabajo analiza la selección de especies leñosas por el ciervo y el efecto de sus poblaciones sobre arbustedos y matorrales de los Montes de Toledo. Se obtuvieron índices de selección para 33 especies leñosas comparando sus porcentajes de utilización (ramoneo) con los de disponibilidad. Phillyrea angustifolia, Arbutus unedo y Quercus faginea presentaron los máximos índices mientras que Thymus mastichina, Daphne gnidium y Pinus pinea exhibieron los más bajos. Las preferencias alimenticias no varíaron significativamente al hacerlo las cargas cinegéticas. El efecto de una carga del orden de 35 ciervos/km2 parece superar el límite de sustentabilidad, incluso teniendo en cuenta que en el área de estudio existen pastos sembrados y cultivos disponibles para los ciervos

The functional role of temperate forest understorey vegetation in a changing world

Temperate forests cover 16% of the global forest area. Within these forests, the understorey is an important biodiversity reservoir that can influence ecosystem processes and functions in multiple ways. However, we still lack a thorough understanding of the relative importance of the understorey for temperate forest functioning. As a result, understoreys are often ignored during assessments of forest functioning and changes thereof under global change. We here compiled studies that quantify the relative importance of the understorey for temperate forest functioning, focussing on litter production, nutrient cycling, evapotranspiration, tree regeneration, pollination and pathogen dynamics. We describe the mechanisms driving understorey functioning and develop a conceptual framework synthesizing possible effects of multiple global change drivers on understorey-mediated forest ecosystem functioning. Our review illustrates that the understorey's contribution to temperate forest functioning is significant but varies depending on the ecosystem function and the environmental context, and more importantly, the characteristics of the overstorey. To predict changes in understorey functioning and its relative importance for temperate forest functioning under global change, we argue that a simultaneous investigation of both overstorey and understorey functional responses to global change will be crucial. Our review shows that such studies are still very scarce, only available for a limited set of ecosystem functions and limited to quantification, providing little data to forecast functional responses to global change

Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios

We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System?recently highlighted in a previous study by Herrera et al. (Clim Chang 118:827?840, 2013)?we used an optimal proxy variable combination. A robust assessment of future fire danger projections is undertaken by disentangling the climate change signal from the uncertainty derived from the multi-model ensemble, unveiling a positive signal of fire danger potential over large areas of the Mediterranean. The increase in the fire danger signal is accentuated towards the latest part of the transient period, thus pointing to an elevated fire potential in the region with time. The fire-climate links under present and future conditions are further discussed building upon observed climate data and burned area records along a representative climatic gradient within the study region.The research leading to these results has received funding from the EXTREMBLES project (CGL2010-21869) funded by the Spanish R&D programme and from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 243888 (FUME Project). The authors acknowledge the RCM data sets from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk) and would also like to thank Erik van Meijgaard from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) for making available ENSEMBLES RACMO2 climate model output verifying at 12:00 UTC. We are also grateful to Jesus Fernandez and three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments that greatly contributed to the improvement of the original manuscript